1st August, Increasing coronavirus cases and prevention in the UK

Global

Cases, 17, 621, 140

Deaths, 679, 966
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-self-isolation-second-wave-uk-deaths-cases/

Singing may be as risky as coughing
Especially gatherings of large groups for a prolonged duration
Evidence, more aerosols than normal talking or breathing.
Even in outdoor settings, the wind can keep droplets airborne

Daily new cases in Europe
Spain
France
Germany more level
UK more level
Poland
Belgium
Italy
Switzerland
Denmark
Greece

England reopened on 4th July

Lag effect
Prevalence of virus in community is increasing

ONS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53609354

Sample of households in England, antigen testing

Excluding care homes and hospitals

Daily new cases have risen from 3,200 up to 4,200 in a week

Higher than DoH because people tested with or without symptoms

Now, one in 1,500
15 July, one in 1,800
2 July, one in 2,000

Boris

Hands, face, space, and get a test

Brake pedal

Indoor performances

Children going back to school is a national priority

Trade offs

15th August at the earliest

Casinos

Bowling alleys

Ice rinks

Beauticians


Prof Graham Medley (SAGE)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/01/coronavirus-live-news-who-reports-record-global-daily-cases-as-easing-on-hold-in-england?page=with:block-5f2526d88f088e9f6f92e24f#liveblog-navigation

England could have to consider closing pubs in order to reopen schools next month.

And so actually, closing some of the other networks, some of the other activities may well be required to enable us to open schools.

It might come down to a question of which do you trade off against each other and then that’s a matter of prioritising – do we think pubs are more important than schools?

Rise in coronavirus infections appeared to be among younger people
warned there was a danger it could “spill” over into other parts of the population.

North-west lockdowns “highly unlikely” to be the “last intervention that has to be done regionally”

Leicester 29th June

Partly locked down

No meetings in homes or gardens

Cafes and pubs opening from Monday

Numbers falling

Testing numbers x 12 rest of UK

Flushing out infections

Manchester, Bradford, Bolton, Lancaster, West Yorkshire
Blackburn Darwen
Oldham
Bradford
Trafford
Calderdale
Rochdale
Manchester
Salford
Kirklees
Stockport
Bolton
Bury
Tameside
Lancashire

4.5 m people for at least a week

Pubs and restaurants still open

No meetings of households inside houses or gardens

Eid this weekend

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8580399/Muslim-leaders-condemn-minute-lockdown-announcement-eve-Eid-abuse-power.html


Blackburn and Darwen

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/blackburn-two-weeks-lower-coronavirus-18600281

Population

30% south Asian

25% of population Muslim

114 cases in the last two weeks, of those, 97 Asian

Blackburn health officials last Tuesday

Five new measures

Reducing household visiting to one household plus two members from another household

Face coverings in all public spaces

Inspections on small corner shops

Ban on hugs and handshakes

Increased testing

Also

Raves

Young people drivers

Football related celebrations

Pubs

Beaches


Mohammed Ashrif Tahir Nushai, (Mosque Leader)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8580399/Muslim-leaders-condemn-minute-lockdown-announcement-eve-Eid-abuse-power.html

‘Sadly, there are people within our community who are not taking coronavirus seriously enough.

Since the easing of the main lockdown, a lot of people have been visiting relatives and friends and attending events in each other’s homes with very little thought of keeping themselves safe

‘We have been trying to get them to understand the message and take greater precautions but what can we do? Now, in Bradford we find ourselves in a very dangerous situation with coronavirus cases on the rise.’

Akhtar Mahmood (mosque committee)

‘One of the big problems we have had is of people going to pay their respects at the homes of
those who have recently died.

We lost a member of our congregation two weeks ago and there were 50 people gathered at his house to express their sympathies.’

A single road in Bradford registered 17 coronavirus cases within six days.



Professor Dominic Harrison, the local authority’s director of public health

Driver of infection, single case to household spread

Multigeneration households

Rising tide, rather than an outbreak

Clusters of household infections are in ‘mainly south-Asian areas’


At risk

Eden in Cumbria

Sandwell in West Midlands

Northampton

Peterborough

Rotherham, South Yorkshire

Wakefield, West Yorkshire

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